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As the discussion over the 2020 election begins to take shape, we can expect the Affordable Care Act to be a topic of debate. However, based on recent polls, it’s unsure how much of debate it will be as Americans continue to express support for the health care law.
A July poll conducted by the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) shows support for the ACA is holding steady. Forty-eight percent of respondents favored continuing the ACA compared to 40% that did which is consistent with polling done by KFF over the past 12 months.
During the 2016 election, Trump campaigned on replace and repeal of the ACA. Today, over 50 percent of Americans think repealing the ACA would be a bad idea, according to a report by NPR on a recent NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll.
A recently released panel study conducted over the course of eight years (2010 – 2018) also finds evidence that support for the ACA is growing and the opposition towards the law is declining. A panel study of Americans’ public opinion on the ACA since 2010 involving more than 1,000 respondents was conducted every two years in the fall of every election year to track change in opinions about the ACA.
According to the study: “Americans’ sense of the law’s impact on their lives is at least holding steady and in some respects growing. Most strikingly, those who feel favorably toward the law are more engaged politically than those who oppose it, and they are more likely to take it into account when they vote. These trends indicate that the law, despite the legal and political obstacles it still confronts, is becoming more firmly established in public opinion and through patterns of political participation.”
The study identified three distinct changes in public opinion:
Support for the ACA is growing and opposition is declining: The study found that the proportion of Americans holding a some-what favorable to strong favorable opinion of the ACA has reached its highest level since the law’s enactment. It also found that The ACA’s unfavorability ranking was at its lowest level.
The ACA has had a tangible impact on people’s lives: The proportion of Americans that believe the ACA had made things better for themselves and their families has reached a new high. The report cited these specific programs as making a difference: “guaranteeing insurance for the children of insured parents until 26 years of age, improving the access of senior for prescription drug coverage, and extending subsidies to purchase private health insurance.”
The public is ready to hold politicians accountable if they threaten the ACA’s programs: In the last national election, “among Americans who favor the ACA, nearly 60% stated health reform as a ‘very’ or ‘extremely’ important issue in deciding among candidates in the 2018 elections, compared to 46.4% of those who held unfavorable views.”
As the ACA turns 10 next year, these studies indicate that the ACA is on track to have the highest approval ratings since it was first enacted, another sign that despite the rhetoric, the health care law is here to stay.
Employers also should plan that if the ACA remains in place, so will the Employer Mandate.
The ACA Employer Mandate requires employers with 50 or more full-time employees and full-time equivalent employees to offer Minimum Essential Coverage (MEC) to at least 95% of their full-time workforce (and their dependents) whereby such coverage meets Minimum Value (MV) and is Affordable for the employee or be subject to IRC Section 4980H penalties.
If you are an employer that thought you could avoid complying with the ACA because you hope that it will go away, the time to reassess that position is now. The rising approval rating among Americans is further proof that it’s here to stay.
If you are required to comply with the Employer Mandate and you haven’t, you should immediately seek assistance to mitigate your potential financial exposure.
The IRS is currently issuing Letter 226J penalty notices to employers identified as having failed to comply with the ACA’s Employer Mandate for the 2017 tax year. If you received this notice, download our guide for navigating your response to the tax agency here.
If you are unsure what your ACA penalty exposure might be, consider working with an outside consultant to undertake an ACA Penalty Risk Assessment. With so much at stake, it could be worth your while.
