The Department of Health and Human Services set a goal for 2016 of signing up 10 million Americans for health insurance through state and federal marketplaces established under the Affordable Care Act. That’s about 10% more than the expected total for 2015.
HHS believes more than 1 out of 4 uninsured marketplace-eligible consumers will select plans during the open enrollment period, which begins November 1. About 8 in 10 of those eligible to buy coverage through the marketplaces are expected to qualify for financial help.
“We believe 10 million is a strong and realistic goal,” said HHS Secretary Sylvia Burwell. Those already insured have “high levels of satisfaction with the marketplace,” and HHS expects that “the vast majority of our current customers will reenroll,” she said, helped by new features added to the online marketplaces to make it easier for them to shop for coverage.
The estimate of 10 million for 2016 is based on the agency’s expectation that 9.1 million individuals will be enrolled via the marketplaces at the end of this year.
HHS anticipates that 7.3 million to 8.8 million of these will select new plans or reenroll in 2016. In addition, it expects 2.8 million to 3.9 million of the roughly 10.5 million eligible uninsured to select plans during Open Enrollment.
The agency also expects 900,000 to 1.5 million individuals who currently have individual health insurance policies purchased outside a marketplace to switch to marketplace plans.
That gives a projected total of 11.0 million to 14.1 million consumers who will select plans via a marketplace during the coming open enrollment period.
HHS expects to see customers come and go as their circumstances change. For example, some will drop marketplace coverage if they become eligible for employer plans, Medicare or Medicaid. Others will sign up after open enrollment closes if they get married, have a baby, or move out of state.
As a result of these fluctuations, the agency estimates a final range of 9.4 million to 11.4 million individuals with coverage at the end of 2016 and will plan its operations based on a goal of 10 million enrolled at the end of 2016.
HHS noted that early non-governmental forecasts for ACA enrollments assumed that total marketplace sign-ups would include “a significant migration from employer- sponsored coverage. That shift has not occurred,” it said.
