Republican House Speaker Paul Ryan recently released the House leadership’s plan for an ACA repeal and replacement. While more light was shed on previously unanswered questions such as the fate of Medicaid Expansion (it will continue through 31 states), the greatest focus was on taxes. Tax credit subsidies, removal of ACA-mandated taxes like health insurer taxes and prescription drug taxes, and tax-exempt offerings like health savings accounts (HSAs).
What followed was an estimate by the Joint Committee on Taxation of the projected figures for the repeal. Initially the plan was projected to cost $600 billion by 2026 and $700 billion by the following year (2027). This concerned many on both political sides. However, the Congressional Budget Office has released figures suggesting the replacement plan would actually save the federal government $337 billion dollars by 2026, to the detriment of healthcare for tens of millions.
This news arrived on the heels of HHS Secretary Tom Price opining that the repeal would increase the number of insured. Now, however, the strength of Price’s view may change with the latest CBO projections. Per the CBO, once the ACA repeal and replacement is in place, the first year alone would leave 14 million Americans without healthcare.
Premiums would decrease eventually, though 2018 and 2019 would see close to a 20% spike. By 2026, 52 million would be uninsured. That’s 24 million more than those who would be uninsured should an ACA repeal not happen. Further, contrary to news that Medicaid Expansion would remain intact, the CBO estimates $880 billion being cut from Medicaid over that 10-year period.
It’s yet another point that perhaps proves the country’s division on an ACA repeal, as well as the heavily criticized plans for its replacement. However, if economists are already anticipating the aftershock of plans that haven’t yet taken action, there will be more pushback against the House leadership plan until a more suitable alternative is unveiled.